| 亞化咨詢(xún)：中國(guó)地?zé)捫袠I(yè)2016年開(kāi)始進(jìn)入景氣周期將增加制氫需求
2016-3-1
亞化咨詢(xún)認(rèn)為，在地?zé)捫袠I(yè)逐步獲得進(jìn)口原油使用權(quán)和原油進(jìn)口權(quán)，國(guó)際油價(jià)持續(xù)低迷使國(guó)際原油貿(mào)易進(jìn)入買(mǎi)方市場(chǎng)，以及國(guó)內(nèi)獨(dú)有的成品油定價(jià)機(jī)制三大因素的推動(dòng)下，中國(guó)地?zé)捫袠I(yè)將從2016年開(kāi)始進(jìn)入景氣周期，并為制氫行業(yè)帶來(lái)新的市場(chǎng)機(jī)遇。
公開(kāi)信息顯示，2016年1月國(guó)內(nèi)地?zé)捫袠I(yè)維持高開(kāi)工率。位于山東省東部的39家地?zé)捚髽I(yè)1月份生產(chǎn)了505萬(wàn)噸汽油和柴油，相比去年大幅增加。亞化咨詢(xún)認(rèn)為，以下三大因素促使中國(guó)地?zé)捫袠I(yè)從2016年開(kāi)始進(jìn)入景氣周期。
1.地?zé)捫袠I(yè)逐步獲得進(jìn)口原油使用權(quán)和原油進(jìn)口權(quán)(原油進(jìn)口“雙權(quán)”)。2.國(guó)際油價(jià)持續(xù)低迷，國(guó)際原油貿(mào)易進(jìn)入買(mǎi)方市場(chǎng)。3.國(guó)內(nèi)獨(dú)有的成品油定價(jià)機(jī)制。
從2015年開(kāi)始，國(guó)家主管部門(mén)逐步放開(kāi)進(jìn)口原油使用權(quán)和原油進(jìn)口權(quán)。2015年，地?zé)捫袠I(yè)有13家獲得進(jìn)口原油使用配額、6家獲得原油非國(guó)營(yíng)貿(mào)易進(jìn)口資質(zhì)。2016年初，原油進(jìn)口“雙權(quán)”的放開(kāi)繼續(xù)推進(jìn)，多家地?zé)捚髽I(yè)提交了配額申請(qǐng)，等待審批。2016年2月29日，中國(guó)16家地方煉油企業(yè)宣布聯(lián)合成立石油采購(gòu)聯(lián)盟，抱團(tuán)進(jìn)入國(guó)際原油貿(mào)易市場(chǎng)。
由于全球供需失衡，國(guó)際油價(jià)從2014下半年開(kāi)始下跌，到2016年初已經(jīng)跌至30美元/桶區(qū)間，國(guó)際原油貿(mào)易已進(jìn)入買(mǎi)方市場(chǎng)。原油價(jià)格低迷不僅大大降低了地?zé)捚髽I(yè)的原料成本，而且地?zé)捫袠I(yè)掌握了原料選擇的主動(dòng)權(quán)，可以提高煉油原料的質(zhì)量。
此外，因國(guó)內(nèi)獨(dú)有的成品油定價(jià)機(jī)制，在原油價(jià)格低于40美元/桶時(shí)，煉油行業(yè)利潤(rùn)豐厚。下面分別以2015年第四季度和2016年1月份的進(jìn)口原油為原料，計(jì)算煉油并批發(fā)出售汽油的利潤(rùn)空間。
根據(jù)海關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)，2015年第四季度，中國(guó)進(jìn)口原油8688萬(wàn)噸，總金額295億美元，平均339.7美元/噸。人民幣對(duì)美元匯率按照6.3估算，進(jìn)口價(jià)格平均為2140元/噸。公開(kāi)信息顯示，2016年1月，中國(guó)進(jìn)口原油2669.1萬(wàn)噸，同比減少4.6%；進(jìn)口均價(jià)為每噸1819.4元，同比下跌36.4%。
國(guó)家發(fā)改委最近一次調(diào)整成品油價(jià)格是2016年1月13日，調(diào)整后供交通、民航等專(zhuān)項(xiàng)用戶(hù)汽、柴油標(biāo)準(zhǔn)品最高供應(yīng)價(jià)格每噸分別為6365元和5420元。(汽油第四、第五階段標(biāo)準(zhǔn)品分別為90號(hào)和89號(hào)汽油，價(jià)格包含消費(fèi)稅、增值稅以及城建稅和教育費(fèi)附加)。如果以此價(jià)格作為成品油出廠(chǎng)價(jià)估算，可以計(jì)算目前汽油標(biāo)準(zhǔn)品不含稅費(fèi)的批發(fā)價(jià)格為2956元/噸。
根據(jù)亞化咨詢(xún)煉油成本模型，可以計(jì)算分別以2015年第四季度的進(jìn)口原油，和2016年1月份的進(jìn)口原油為原料，生產(chǎn)汽油并以批發(fā)價(jià)格銷(xiāo)售，每噸汽油的(所得稅前)利潤(rùn)分別為880元/噸和1146元/噸。在當(dāng)前能源化工行業(yè)普遍不景氣的大環(huán)境下利潤(rùn)可觀(guān)。對(duì)于擁有零售渠道的大型地?zé)捚髽I(yè)，還可以進(jìn)一步獲取零售環(huán)節(jié)的利潤(rùn)。
綜上所述，在多重利好的推動(dòng)下，中國(guó)地?zé)捫袠I(yè)2016年開(kāi)始進(jìn)入景氣周期。公開(kāi)信息顯示，成達(dá)新能源、科力達(dá)、華聯(lián)石化、�；⒋筮B恒力石化、河南豐利石化、亞通石化、墾利石化等企業(yè)在2016年有新建或擴(kuò)建煉油產(chǎn)能的計(jì)劃。
氫氣是煉油行業(yè)的重要原料，深度加氫脫硫是生產(chǎn)低硫清潔油品的重要手段。中國(guó)地?zé)捫袠I(yè)的產(chǎn)能擴(kuò)張與國(guó)家對(duì)清潔油品標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的不斷升級(jí)，將增加煉油行業(yè)的制氫需求。亞化咨詢(xún)認(rèn)為，大規(guī)模的煤制氫，以及在低油價(jià)背景下的渣油氣化制氫，因其成本優(yōu)勢(shì)，并可以聯(lián)產(chǎn)蒸汽和電力，將成為未來(lái)煉廠(chǎng)補(bǔ)充氫源的主要發(fā)展方向。
第三屆中國(guó)制氫與先進(jìn)煤氣化技術(shù)研討會(huì)將于2016年3月17日在山東濟(jì)南召開(kāi)。會(huì)議將探討全球與中國(guó)煉油行業(yè)氫氣需求，煉廠(chǎng)不同制氫方案的經(jīng)濟(jì)性比較，先進(jìn)煤氣化技術(shù)進(jìn)展與應(yīng)用，氫氣分離提純工藝路線(xiàn)，中小規(guī)模制氫解決方案，化工園區(qū)氫氣與合成氣供應(yīng)成功經(jīng)驗(yàn)，新能源制氫的可行性分析等。
由亞化咨詢(xún)主辦的第二屆中國(guó)油品升級(jí)技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)研討會(huì)，以及首屆中國(guó)煉化一體化研討會(huì)將于2016年6月中旬在廈門(mén)召開(kāi)。屆時(shí)政府產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)劃部門(mén)，國(guó)際煉化企業(yè)，煉化央企以及地方煉油企業(yè)等將集聚一堂，探討國(guó)家產(chǎn)業(yè)政策對(duì)煉廠(chǎng)油品升級(jí)進(jìn)程的影響，以及十三五期間新建煉化一體化項(xiàng)目發(fā)展規(guī)劃情況。
對(duì)現(xiàn)代煤化工和高端石化行業(yè)的投資者和參與者而言，了解和判斷國(guó)家政策發(fā)展及其走勢(shì)；新型煤化工和高端石化項(xiàng)目的技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)可行性；示范項(xiàng)目建設(shè)進(jìn)度和運(yùn)行進(jìn)展；未來(lái)產(chǎn)能增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)和市場(chǎng)需求等；并以此作為公司決策的依據(jù)是非常重要的。為了給行業(yè)和企業(yè)決策者提供獨(dú)立的、客觀(guān)的分析評(píng)論和參考意見(jiàn)，作為專(zhuān)注于能源化工新興領(lǐng)域的行業(yè)研究機(jī)構(gòu)，亞化咨詢(xún)推出了《中國(guó)現(xiàn)代煤化工和高端石化年度系列報(bào)告2016》。
欲知更多詳情請(qǐng)致電：021-50329633-116或18019146895胡經(jīng)理
ASIACHEM: High Prosperity Cycle of Chinese Local Refinery Industry starting from 2016 is expected to Bring up Hydrogen Demand
2016-3-1
ASIACHEM believes in that, under the push of three factors, i.e. gradual grant of right to use imported oil and to direct import oil to local refineries, a buyer market caused by price volatility in international crude oil trade, and the unique Chinese refined oil product pricing mechanism, Chinese local refinery industry will enter high prosperity cycle starting from 2016, and bring up new market opportunity for hydrogen industry.
As shown by public data, local refineries maintained high operating rate in Jan 2016. 39 local refineries, concentrating in eastern part of Shandong Province, outputted in total 5.05Mt of gasoline and diesel fuel, a jumping increase over the last year. ASIACHEM believes in that, following three major factors are driving the industry entry of a high prosperity cycle starting from 2016.
1. Gradual grant of right to use imported oil and to direct import oil to local refineries (dual right for crude oil import); 2. A buyer market caused by price volatility in international crude oil trade; and 3. The unique Chinese refined oil product pricing mechanism.
Starting from 2015, state authority gradually deregulated on the use of import oil and oil import. In 2015, 13 local refineries were granted with imported oil use quota, and 6 qualified as non-state owned oil importers. At the beginning of 2016, deregulation on oil import“dual right”was further pressed forward as more local refineries submitted quota application waiting for approval. On 29th Feb. 2016, 16 Chinese local refineries announced have jointly established an oil procurement alliance to enter the international crude oil trading market by clannishness.
Owing to global market imbalance, oil price started a falling trend in H2 2014, and dropped down to a band around USD30/bbl at the beginning of this year, driving the market into buyer dominance. Crude price volatility not only reduced raw cost for local refineries, but also passed the initiative power of crude selection to the refineries for seeking after better raw material quality.
In addition, the unique Chinese refined oil pricing mechanism will result in broad profit margin for refiners at crude price level below USD40/bbl. Shown below are the calculations of crude processing/gasoline wholesale profit margin based on Q4 2015 and Jan 2016 imported crude price respectively.
According to Chinese Custom data, the country imported 86.88Mt of crude at the price of USD29.5bn in total, or averaged on USD339.7/t. The import price converted to CNY2140/t assuming an exchange rate of 6.3. Also shown by public data, China imported 26.691Mt of crude in Jan 2016, 4.6% less than the first month last year; averaged import price was CNY1819.4/t, a dramatic fall of 36.4% comparing to same period 2015.
Last time NDRC regulating refined oil price was on Jan 13th 2016, setting the ceiling prices of gasoline and diesel fuel for traffic, aviation and other specific users at CNY6365/t and 5420/t respectively (gasoline prices set for CN IV #90 and CN V #89, consumption tax, VAT, urban construction levy and education surcharge included in both). Assuming these for factory gate price estimate, wholesale price of regular gasoline, taxes excluded, would become CNY2956/t.
Using ASIACHEM developed refinery cost model, and taking Q4 2015/Jan 2016 crude import cost as well as gasoline wholesale price as bases for calculation, profit per ton of gasoline production (before income tax) would be CNY880 and CNY1146 respectively. This is quite encouraging against the generally shaded environment of current energy chemical industry, while additional retail profit can be accessed by bigger local refineries of own distribution channel.
In short, the above said multiple favorable factors will drive Chinese local refinery industry into a high prosperity cycle starting from 2016. Media have reported a number of new construction and/or expansion projects in this year, planned respectively by Chengda Novel Energy, Kelida, Hualian Petrochemical, Haihua Petrochemical, Dalian Hengli Petrochemical, Henan Fengli Petrochemical, Yatong Petrochemical, and Kenli Petrochemical, etc.
Hydrogen is a key feedstock to oil refining industry, and deep hydro-desulfurization is a principal mean for low-sulfur cleaner oil product formulation. Capacity expansion of Chinese local refinery industry and sustained upgrading of cleaner motor fuel standard will for sure increase hydrogen demand by the industry. ASIACHEM predicts that large scale coal to hydrogen process, as well as residue gasification to hydrogen process (under low crude oil price), by their cost advantage and steam/electricity cogeneration options, will become a main developing orientation for future refinery to secure hydrogen supply.
The 3rd China H2 Production & Advanced Coal Gasification Conference will be held on Mar 17th 2016 in Jinan, Shandong, China. The conference will discuss global and China’s H2 demand in oil refining industry, economical comparison of refineries’different H2 production schemes, advanced coal gasification technologies updates and application, H2 separation and purification process routes, middle and small scale H2 production solutions, successful experiences of H2 and syngas supply in chemical parks, feasibility analysis of H2 production by new energy, etc.
For the modern coal chemical & advanced petrochemical investors and suppliers, understanding the national policy development and trends; modern coal chemical & advanced petrochemical technologies and economics; the updates of construction and operation of projects; and market demand and future growth potentials; and as a basis for corporate decision-making is very important.
In order to provide independent, objective industrial analysis or comments for reference of decision-makers, as the dedicated consultancy on energy & Chemicals emerging sectors, ASIACHEM has launched . Please see attached Subscription Introduction.
If you want to know more information about the upcoming conference, pls contact with 0086 21 50329699 116
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